What To Know About Blackjack

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MrZippy1023
Does anybody have a good rule for getting up from the blackjack table for someone playing basic strategy?
More specifically, assuming an initial stake of $100, $5 flat betting with basic strategy on a Vegas 3:2 table with six decks.
My goal is to get $100 up and as a rule will then leave the table.
The question is, how much can I get down before getting to my goal of $100 up becomes seriously improbable.
My gut feeling is that once I drop below $40-50 it is a good time to go.
However, I was just wondering if there was any math to backup the typically irrational gut.
And I do get that actually winning is mathematically improbable to start with.
------------------PLEASE SEE MY POST BELOW AS I TRIED TO CLARIFY MY QUESTION------------------
Yoyomama

Everything You Ever Wanted To Know About Blackjack. Written by Kevin Horridge. Industry, Strategy. The classic casino table game of blackjack is one of the most popular card games played in both. Free Blackjack Strategy Game: Hit or Stand is a free online blackjack game and trainer that teaches you blackjack strategy while you play. The goal of the game is to make a high percentage of correct moves, not to earn money. Click on the big game machine to the right to begin playing. When you first approach a blackjack table (or an online lobby), you will see a placard or sign with the specific set of rules for that table. There are lots of different ways the casino can choose to run the game of blackjack, and it’s important you know what these are so that you can pick the table that best fits your style and preferences.

I play $5 (with 1,2,3,5x progression) and usually buy in for $300 and have at least another $500 backup. My own goal is $300. I have walked away after 20 minutes play once I hit $300.
I think the casinos thrives on people with limited funds. They are the ones sitting there playing $5 a hand, every hand, and not pressing , splitting or doubling down every chance they get. They lose, like you say, $40-50 and walk. I may be down $2-300 at some point but have the bankroll to continue play come back. I've played 4-5 hrs just to come back and break even. I think if you have to walk based on your bankroll you probably shouldn't be playing or expect to win very often.
For me, it's like a roller coaster. I'm either up $300 or down $300. It's just a matter of leaving when I am up.
I don't sit down unless I have at least $800-1000 and prepared to play 6-8hrs, if necessary. And that's at a $5 table!
Good luck to you.
JIMMYFOCKER
Are you using a count strategy of some type?
Asswhoopermcdaddy

Does anybody have a good rule for getting up from the blackjack table for someone playing basic strategy?
More specifically, assuming an initial stake of $100, $5 flat betting with basic strategy on a Vegas 3:2 table with six decks.
My goal is to get $100 up and as a rule will then leave the table.
The question is, how much can I get down before getting to my goal of $100 up becomes seriously improbable.
My gut feeling is that once I drop below $40-50 it is a good time to go.
However, I was just wondering if there was any math to backup the typically irrational gut.
And I do get that actually winning is mathematically improbable to start with.

What to know about blackjack without
A $50 loss = 10 consecutive losses. I've seen 10 consecutive losses in BJ using perfect strategy so many times I wanted to puke. I've seen players martingale 10 consecutive losses and look much worse. You should leave when:
1.) The game no longer becomes fun.
2.) When the players / dealers stink literally or figuratively
3.) When you hit a predetermined loss limit based on your own risk tolerance.
If you're thinking of leaving at a $50 loss, your risk tolerance is probably even less than that. It might be somewhere around $25 or 5 losses. See how you feel at walking away from the table at a $25 loss, and clear your head before jumping into the next game. I caveat one thing though, setting a win goal of 1X bankroll seems a bit aggressive to me. Assuming I'm up in BJ, I walk when I:
1.) obnoxious people enter the game
2.) shoe ends and new shuffle begins
3.) and from a dollar perspective, I lose 50% of the peak value of my profit starting from a profit level of $40 (at $5 mins). Under $40, I keep going.
MrZippy1023
Thank you for the considered responses,
However, I wanted to clarify my question as my interest is really independent of actual specifics regarding initial stake, min bets and when to walk away.
What I was interested in is with an initial bank roll starting at X and a fixed goal of Y what is the mathematical probability of actually achieving it, and does the probability of getting to my goal of Y increase, decrease, or remain the same depending on the positive or negative changes in bank roll of X.
In other words, is there math to support my notion or hunch that the further I get from a goal of Y the probability of not achieving it increases? And is that decrease in probability a straight line or a curve.
As I keep reading about blackjack, you keep hearing that playing by your gut is a bad idea. So the intent here is to have a better understanding of the dynamics of the game in order to make realistic decisions at the table. Intent is to reasonably set a goals and to understand when your chances to get there have become unreasonable. I am just looking for something, if possible that is more informed than my ever expanding gut.
I am no math genius so if my question is ridiculous then please tell me so and I will gladly go away.
Thanks again for your consideration
Yoyomama
No such thing as a ridiculous question. Not sure there's a good answer though. Odds are against you even winning!
'When my search for an old-fashioned 21 table took me to the upscale Venetian, I found a couple of high-stakes tables offering a decent game of double-deck blackjack. But with a $200 minimum bet -- and figuring that a blackjack bankroll ought to be 50 times the basic wager — $10,000 seemed like an excessive amount to risk for a few hours of honest fun.' LA Times
I have heard 10x (if you flat bet) all the way to 200X base bet (based on 20hrs play).
Lots of variables. I play in Canada and Vegas. BIG DIFFERENCE! I lose 10 hands in a row in Vegas & I walk and go to another of a thousand other tables. In Canada, you don't have that luxury. You walk from one table and there may not be another BJ table open.
Basic strategy & your betting strategy is a big factor too.
I play basic strategy by the book. I also bet 1x, 2x, 3x, 5x ($5-$25). I go back to 1x if I lose or win 5x. These people that guess and 'think' make me crazy. 'Oh, I thought the dealer had a 5 underneath.' WT.....? My system works for me. No guessing or crystal balling.
Now I am just rambling. Good question and good luck with the answer.
P90

Does anybody have a good rule for getting up from the blackjack table for someone playing basic strategy?


Not really. Well, when you have seen a lot of aces come up recently. You don't have to count, but just avoiding playing in a seriously cold shoe can save you a lot of money.
What
Quote: MrZippy1023

My goal is to get $100 up and as a rule will then leave the table.
The question is, how much can I get down before getting to my goal of $100 up becomes seriously improbable.


There is no hard limit really. I've been down to 62 bets not so long ago, with a bankroll of 200 bets - and left with 210. Didn't want to try my luck or rather nerves further, one close call (I had a soft stop loss at 40 bets, so that was 22 till the curtains) is enough for one day. That's not counting outright miraculous recoveries from the last few bets.
Variance in Blackjack is massive, going down to 1/3 and up to 2x the bankroll in a session is nothing unusual.
As a general rule, I suggest quitting when one is down to 20x average bet, or 40x base bet, but since you start out with less than 40x, that's clearly not an option. You should hard-quit when you have less than 4 bets (or better 6), though, since past that you can't take full advantage of doubles and splits.
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dwheatley
Let's say you start at $100, tying to get to $200. Assuming BJ is a coin flip (which it isn't, but it's close enough), you probability of achieving your goal before going bust is 50%.
If you start at $50, trying to get to $200, your probability of success is 50/200 = 25%. Your CURRENT bankroll is a big factor in trying to get to some preset win goal.
In general, your probability of success is (current bankroll) / Y.
So, let's say you want at least a 10% chance of getting back to $200, you need to leave at $20.
But... if your stop loss is at $20, your bankroll X isn't actually $100, it's only $80, which adjusts the initial probabilities. That is, you are only fooling yourself if you go in with $100, thinking that is your bankroll, when you plan to leave if you drop to $40. It's good practice to have a stop point, and the higher it is the less you lose, but for calculating the original probability of success, you have to use your real bankroll.
Say you plan to only lose $60, or win $100. probability of success is 60/(100+60) = 37.5%
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
dm

Does anybody have a good rule for getting up from the blackjack table for someone playing basic strategy?
More specifically, assuming an initial stake of $100, $5 flat betting with basic strategy on a Vegas 3:2 table with six decks.
My goal is to get $100 up and as a rule will then leave the table.
The question is, how much can I get down before getting to my goal of $100 up becomes seriously improbable.
My gut feeling is that once I drop below $40-50 it is a good time to go.
However, I was just wondering if there was any math to backup the typically irrational gut.
And I do get that actually winning is mathematically improbable to start with.
No. I have one rule: if I get up, say $50, on BJ or any slot, I never quit with a loss. I will cash out with a $5 profit. Even a $1 profit on a slot. Nothing worse than turning a good win into an actual loss.
------------------PLEASE SEE MY POST BELOW AS I TRIED TO CLARIFY MY QUESTION------------------

What to know about blackrock

By Henry Tamburin
One of the most often asked questions from players about blackjack strategy, is 'how should I bet?' You've got several options and I'll discuss them in this article and offer my recommendation.

Flat Bet Blackjack Strategy

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This means betting the same amount all the time. Most players don't like to bet this way because they figure if the dealer wins more hands then them they'll never win any money. Also players feel it's boring betting this way. They prefer the thrill of sometimes betting more in the hopes that when they do so, they will win the hand and make a nice profit.

Here are the facts on the flat betting blackjack strategy. If you bet say $5 on every hand in a standard multiple deck game the house will have an edge of 0.5% against the skilled basic strategy player. That means you will lose on average 0.5% of every wager you make. So if you bet $10 on every hand and average 80 hands per hour you will have made a total of $800 worth of bets. The casino expects to earn 0.5% of the $800 or $4.00. Of course the more likely result is that you'll win or lose much more than $4 after an hour of play. But on average you can expect over time to lose at the rate of $4 per hour.

Let's take an example of a player flat betting $10 on every hand. It's is a conservative betting strategy that leads to a relatively low theoretical loss rate. The fluctuation in this player's bankroll will also be low which means the likelihood he'll have a big winning or losing session is not great.

Progressive Betting Blackjack Strategy

This is where things get interesting. The Progressive betting blackjack strategy is when players vary their bets in some way from one hand to the next rather than always betting the same amount on every hand. There are all different types of betting progressions but they all have one common denominator. You either decrease or increase your next bet depending upon whether the hand you just played won or lose.

Win progressions encourage you to increase your bet size after a winning hand. For example you make a minimum bet of $10 and if you win, you raise your next stakes on next hand to $20.

There are all different kinds of win progressions. The most common is a 1-2-3-5 progression. This means you increase your bet by the above multiples after each winning hand but as soon as you experience a loss, you start the progression over with a 1 unit bet.

Proponents of win progressions will tell you that you'll win more money if you win 5 consecutive hands compared to the amount you lose if you lose 5 consecutive hands. Of course what they don't tell you is that you never know when that 5 consecutive winning hand streak will occur.

There are also betting progressions in which you increase your bet following a loss. These Martingale type betting progression are dangerous and you should never consider using them.

There is also hybrid betting progressions, which have you increase your bets following a win, but after two or three success wins you lock up some profit and gradually regress your bets. The creativity of progressive bettors is never ending.

First of all, blackjack strategy for betting progressions do not change the 0.5% house edge one iota. There has never been a correlation between the hand just won (or lost) and you chance of winning the next hand. In other words using the criteria of the result of one hand (W/L) to base how you bet on the next hand has no scientific validity. So betting progressions in the long run don't work in the sense that they won't improve your long-term chances of winning.

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But here's what betting progressions will do. First off they increase the fluctuation in your session bankroll compared to flat betting. This means you can win more using a betting progression compared to flat betting but you can also lose more. Secondly, betting progressions will increase the amount of money you wager per hour compared to flat betting. If a $10 bettor uses a 1-2-3-5 betting progression, his average bet will $20. Over an hour he will average $20 times 80 hands or $1600 worth of bets. The casinos expected win is 0.5% of $1600 or $8. In other words a $10 progressive bettor stands to lose twice as much per hour as a $10 flat bettor.

Here's a tip to save you some money in the long run if you insist on using a betting progression. Instead of starting your progression at $10, start at a lower amount (ie. $5). This will reduce your average bet to $10 per hour and cut you hourly theoretical loss rate in half.

What To Know About Blackjack Song

But in the long run flat betting and betting progressions don't work in the sense they won't change the house edge against you and you will lose in the long run. So what betting system works? That my friends is card counting.

Betting When You Have The Edge (Card Counting)

With card counting you know when you have the edge based on the change in the composition of the decks and therefore you'll know when it's the right time to bet more. So unlike betting progressions that are based on whether you win or lose the previous hands, card counting is based on the mix of cards that were played on previous hands. If more small value cards were played in previous rounds, there are more big value cards left in the unplayed cards and the edge shifts from dealer to player. This would be the best time to bet more.

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But I'm realist. Not a whole lot of average blackjack players have the time or mental concentration during play that is required to master one of the popular point count card counting systems. These are readily available in blackjack books. But even though millions of blackjack books have been sold since Ed Thorp's classic book, Beat The Dealer (circa 1962) first revealed card counting to the masses, the number of players who can successful win money in the long run at blackjack number in the hundreds and thousands.

So what's the answer to betting at blackjack for the average player? I asked Don Pronovost that same question about four years ago. Don is a software developer that markets blackjack training software. He spent the better part of two years and a trillion computer simulated hands looking for the solution to this dilemma. What he developed is Speed Count.

Speed Count is unlike any conventional card counting system. It's much simpler to master and requires much less concentration when you play. And unlike progressive betting systems, Speed Count will give you a verifiable advantage over the casino You can read about Speed Count in Frank Scoblete’s book, Golden Touch Blackjack Revolution.

Now that you know the scoop on betting at blackjack, I wish you many aces and faces the next time you play.

Henry Tamburin has been a respected casino gambling writer for the past 50 years. He is the author of the Ultimate Blackjack Strategy Guide and was editor of the Blackjack Insider newsletter. You can read his latest articles on blackjack, video poker, and his personal playing experiences at https://www.888casino.com/blog/writers/henry-tamburin